scenario-war-room

Scenario War Room

Model cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests — compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next.

Keywords

scenario planning, war room, what-if analysis, risk modeling, cascading effects, compound risk, adversity planning, contingency planning, stress test, crisis planning, multi-variable scenario, pre-mortem

Quick Start

python scripts/scenario_modeler.py   # Interactive scenario builder with cascade modeling

Or describe the scenario in natural language:

"What if we lose our top customer AND miss the Q3 fundraise?" "What if 3 engineers quit AND we need to ship by Q3?" "What if our market shrinks 30% AND a competitor raises $50M?"

What This Is Not

• Not a single-assumption stress test (that's /em:stress-test)
• Not financial modeling only — every function gets modeled
• Not worst-case-only — models 3 severity levels
• Not paralysis by analysis — outputs concrete hedges and triggers

Framework: 6-Step Cascade Model

Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (max 3)

State each variable with:

• What changes — specific, quantified if possible
• Probability — your best estimate
• Timeline — when it hits

Variable A: Top customer (28% ARR) gives 60-day termination notice
  Probability: 15% | Timeline: Within 90 days

Variable B: Series A fundraise delayed 6 months beyond target close
  Probability: 25% | Timeline: Q3

Variable C: Lead engineer resigns
  Probability: 20% | Timeline: Unknown

Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping

For each variable, each relevant role models impact:

Domain	Owner	Models
Cash & runway	CFO	Burn impact, runway change, bridge options
Revenue	CRO	ARR gap, churn cascade risk, pipeline
Product	CPO	Roadmap impact, PMF risk
Engineering	CTO	Velocity impact, key person risk
People	CHRO	Attrition cascade, hiring freeze implications
Operations	COO	Capacity, OKR impact, process risk
Security	CISO	Compliance timeline risk
Market	CMO	CAC impact, competitive exposure

Step 3: Cascade Effect Mapping

This is the core. Show how Variable A triggers consequences in domains that trigger Variable B's effects:

TRIGGER: Customer churn ($560K ARR)
  ↓
CFO: Runway drops 14 → 8 months
  ↓
CHRO: Hiring freeze; retention risk increases (morale hit)
  ↓
CTO: 3 open engineering reqs frozen; roadmap slips
  ↓
CPO: Q4 feature launch delayed → customer retention risk
  ↓
CRO: NRR drops; existing accounts see reduced velocity → more churn risk
  ↓
CFO: [Secondary cascade — potential death spiral if not interrupted]

Name the cascade explicitly. Show where it can be interrupted.

Step 4: Severity Matrix

Model three scenarios:

Scenario	Definition	Recovery
Base	One variable hits; others don't	Manageable with plan
Stress	Two variables hit simultaneously	Requires significant response
Severe	All variables hit; full cascade	Existential; requires board intervention

For each severity level:

• Runway impact
• ARR impact
• Headcount impact
• Timeline to unacceptable state (trigger point)

Step 5: Trigger Points (Early Warning Signals)

Define the measurable signal that tells you a scenario is unfolding before it's confirmed:

Trigger for Customer Churn Risk:
  - Sponsor goes dark for >3 weeks
  - Usage drops >25% MoM
  - No Q1 QBR confirmed by Dec 1

Trigger for Fundraise Delay:
  - <3 term sheets after 60 days of process
  - Lead investor requests >30-day extension on DD
  - Competitor raises at lower valuation (market signal)

Trigger for Engineering Attrition:
  - Glassdoor activity from engineering team
  - 2+ referral interview requests from engineers
  - Above-market offer counter-required in last 3 months

Step 6: Hedging Strategies

For each scenario: actions to take now (before the scenario materializes) that reduce impact if it does.

Hedge	Cost	Impact	Owner	Deadline
Establish $500K credit line	$5K/year	Buys 3 months if churn hits	CFO	60 days
12-month retention bonus for 3 key engineers	$90K	Locks team through fundraise	CHRO	30 days
Diversify to <20% revenue concentration per customer	Sales effort	Reduces single-customer risk	CRO	2 quarters
Compress fundraise timeline, start parallel process	CEO time	Closes before runways merge	CEO	Immediate

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Output Format

Every war room session produces:

SCENARIO: [Name]
Variables: [A, B, C]
Most likely path: [which combination actually plays out, with probability]

SEVERITY LEVELS
Base (A only): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]
Stress (A+B): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]
Severe (A+B+C): [runway/ARR impact] — existential risk: [yes/no]

CASCADE MAP
[A → domain impact → B trigger → domain impact → end state]

EARLY WARNING SIGNALS
- [Signal 1 → which scenario it indicates]
- [Signal 2 → which scenario it indicates]
- [Signal 3 → which scenario it indicates]

HEDGES (take these actions now)
1. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]
2. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]
3. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]

RECOMMENDED DECISION
[One paragraph. What to do, in what order, and why.]

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Rules for Good War Room Sessions

Max 3 variables per scenario. More than 3 is noise — you can't meaningfully prepare for 5-variable collapse. Model the 3 that actually worry you.

Quantify or estimate. "Revenue drops" is not useful. "$420K ARR at risk over 60 days" is. Use ranges if uncertain.

Don't stop at first-order effects. The damage is always in the cascade, not the initial hit.

Model recovery, not just impact. Every scenario should have a "what we do" path.

Separate base case from sensitivity. Don't conflate "what probably happens" with "what could happen."

Don't over-model. 3-4 scenarios per planning cycle is the right number. More creates analysis paralysis.

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Common Scenarios by Stage

Seed:

• Co-founder leaves + product misses launch
• Funding runs out + bridge terms unfavorable

Series A:

• Miss ARR target + fundraise delayed
• Key customer churns + competitor raises

Series B:

• Market contraction + burn multiple spikes
• Lead investor wants pivot + team resists

Integration with C-Suite Roles

Scenario Type	Primary Roles	Cascade To
Revenue miss	CRO, CFO	CMO (pipeline), COO (cuts), CHRO (layoffs)
Key person departure	CHRO, COO	CTO (if eng), CRO (if sales)
Fundraise failure	CFO, CEO	COO (runway extension), CHRO (hiring freeze)
Security breach	CISO, CTO	CEO (comms), CFO (cost), CRO (customer impact)
Market shift	CEO, CPO	CMO (repositioning), CRO (new segments)
Competitor move	CMO, CRO	CPO (roadmap response), CEO (strategy)

References

• references/scenario-planning.md — Shell methodology, pre-mortem, Monte Carlo, cascade frameworks
• scripts/scenario_modeler.py — CLI tool for structured scenario modeling