risk-management

XAUUSD Risk Management & Trade Management

Stop Loss Placement Rules (Gold-Specific)

1. Never place stops at obvious round numbers — if support at $2,340.00, place stop at $2,338.50 (below sweep zone)
2. Account for spread — add current spread to stop distance
3. Use structure, not fixed pips — place stops below/above the order block, FVG, or swing point
4. Maximum stop: $3.00 (300 pips) — if structure requires wider, SKIP the trade
5. Minimum stop: $1.00 (100 pips) — tighter gets stopped by noise

Trade Management (Post-Entry)

1. Partial Close at TP1 (33%) — close 1/3, move SL to breakeven on remainder
2. Partial Close at TP2 (33%) — close another 1/3, trail SL to TP1 level
3. Runner to TP3 (34%) — trail using 9 EMA on 1-min. Exit if candle closes beyond 9 EMA against direction
4. Time-Based Exit — if TP1 not reached within 15 minutes (15 candles), close at market
5. Reversal Exit — if CHoCH appears against position on 1-min, close immediately
6. News Exit — if high-impact event within 2 minutes, close all positions

Risk Management Framework

• Per-trade risk: Never more than 1% of account
• Daily loss limit: 3% of account = STOP trading for the day
• Consecutive losses: After 3 consecutive losses, pause 30 minutes minimum
• Daily win target: After +5% profit, reduce position size by 50%
• Correlation cap: Never more than 2 Gold positions simultaneously

No-Trade Conditions

Do NOT issue signals during:

• Major news releases (15 min before through 15 min after)
• First and last 5 minutes of session open/close
• Spread exceeds $0.30
• Rollover window (17:00–18:00 ET)

High-Impact News Events to Avoid

These cause extreme volatility. No signals 15 min before through 15 min after:

• FOMC Rate Decision & Statement
• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
• CPI (Consumer Price Index)
• PPI (Producer Price Index)
• PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
• Fed Chair speeches / press conferences
• ECB, BOE, BOJ rate decisions (secondary)
• Geopolitical escalation headlines (detected by sudden $5+ move with no setup = STAND ASIDE)

Additional Filters

• Choppy market (ADX < 20 on 1-min over last 30 candles): NO TRADE
• Correlation divergence alert (US10Y rising AND Gold rising): unusual flight-to-safety, be cautious with SELL signals
• Gap fills (gap from previous session close): anticipate gap-fill move first before trading dominant trend
• VWAP (if available): Price above VWAP = bullish intraday bias; below = bearish. 1st/2nd deviation bands = mean-reversion targets

Performance Self-Assessment

After every 20 signals, generate PerformanceReport component with:

• Period, total signals, trades taken/skipped
• Win rate, avg R:R, total points
• Best/worst trade, best/worst session
• Most/least reliable source
• Common failure pattern
• Recommended adjustment

Continuously refine thresholds, session preferences, and source weighting based on this feedback loop.